Migrant overrepresentation in crime statistics in Western Europe
The relationship between migration and crime is one of the most researched, yet also one of the most sensitive topics in Western democracies. Politicians, academics, and journalists have been trying for decades to understand why migrants, and especially the second generation, are structurally overrepresented in crime statistics across almost all countries. The debate often focuses on socioeconomic causes, but recent analyses show that cultural factors play a crucial role, such as behavioral norms, group loyalty, assertion of power, and gender roles.
Overrepresentation can be viewed in two ways: relative and absolute. Relative refers to the increased likelihood that an individual with a migration background is registered as a suspect compared to an individual without such a background. This perspective focuses on the crime rate per individual within a specific group. Absolute means that migrants commit a larger share of all crimes than their population share would suggest. This perspective focuses on the total number of crimes attributed to a specific group compared to their representation in the overall population. Both perspectives are important to get a complete picture of crime and to design effective policy interventions.
Migration history, age structure, urban concentrations, and cultural norms influence crime in different ways. Young men of the second generation of migrants are consistently the most overrepresented in violent crimes and group-related offenses, while women are underrepresented everywhere. This article analyzes the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, France, and the United Kingdom, including figures, tables, and cultural explanations, showing that this is a widespread pattern.
The Netherlands: one quarter of the population, half of the suspects
The Netherlands has relatively detailed statistics on migration background. According to Integratie en Samenleven 2024 – Criminaliteit (CBS), in 2022 people with a migration background made up about 27 percent of the population, but they accounted for 53 percent of all suspects. Especially second-generation migrant young men are overrepresented, particularly in violent and group crimes.
Cultural factors play a role here. Young men from certain migrant groups often show strong group loyalty and attach great importance to respect and status within their peer groups. Conflict resolution through direct confrontation occurs more frequently than among native Dutch youth, which contributes to overrepresentation in violence. Women remain underrepresented in all migrant groups, indicating clear gender norms within cultural contexts (Van verdenking tot vrijheidsstraf, WODC, 2025).
| Group | Share of population (%) | Share of suspects (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Without migration background | 73 % | 47 % |
| With migration background | 27 % | 53 % |
| 1st generation | 13 % | 20 % |
| 2nd generation | 14 % | 33 % |
Breakdown by type of offense:
| Offense type | Migrant share (%) | Relative overrepresentation | Cultural factors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Violent crimes | 60 % | 2.22× | Group loyalty, confrontational style |
| Property crimes | 45 % | 1.67× | Status-driven behavior and social networks |
| Sexual offenses | 40 % | 1.48× | Attitudes toward gender and interaction |
Germany: urban concentration and cultural behaviors
Germany shows a similar situation. In 2022 about 26 percent of the population had a foreign nationality, but this group was responsible for 41 percent of all suspects (Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik 2023, BKA). Young men of North African and Middle Eastern descent are particularly overrepresented, especially in violent crimes, street crime, and sexual offenses. Cultural norms such as honor concepts, assertion of power, and group loyalty contribute to conflicts and escalation.
| Group | Share of population (%) | Share of suspects (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Without migration background | 74 % | 59 % |
| With migration background | 26 % | 41 % |
| 1st generation | 12 % | 18 % |
| 2nd generation | 14 % | 23 % |
| Offense type | Migrant share (%) | Relative overrepresentation | Cultural factors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Violence and street crime | 48 % | 1.85× | Group norms, honor culture |
| Property crimes | 36 % | 1.38× | Social networks and peer pressure |
| Sexual offenses | 30 % | 1.15× | Attitudes toward gender and sexuality |
Sweden: second generation most overrepresented
In Sweden, migrants and their descendants make up about 33 percent of the population and are responsible for 58 percent of registered suspects (Registered offending among persons born in Sweden and abroad 2007–2018, Brå, 2021). Young men of the second generation show the highest relative overrepresentation, especially in serious violent crimes and group violence. Cultural factors such as peer groups, assertion of power, and group loyalty play a major role.
| Group | Share of population (%) | Share of suspects (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Without migration background | 67 % | 42 % |
| With migration background | 33 % | 58 % |
| 1st generation | 18 % | 26 % |
| 2nd generation | 15 % | 32 % |
| Offense type | Migrant share (%) | Relative overrepresentation | Cultural factors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Violent crimes | 65 % | 2.2× | Group loyalty, assertion of power |
| Property crimes | 50 % | 1.52× | Status and peer pressure |
| Sexual offenses | 42 % | 1.6× | Attitudes toward gender |
France: overrepresentation in the banlieues
France publishes few figures based on migration background, but analyses show that young people of North African descent are strongly overrepresented in prisons. More than 60 percent of inmates have a migration background, while their share of the population is 20–25 percent (Banlieues, la relégation, Hugues Lagrange). Cultural behaviors, group loyalty, and confrontational styles are defining factors.
| Group | Share of population (%) | Share of suspects/prisoners (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Without migration background | 75–80 % | <40 % |
| With migration background | 20–25 % | >60 % |
| Offense type | Migrant share (%) | Relative overrepresentation | Cultural factors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Violent crimes | 70 % | >2× | Banlieue culture, group loyalty |
| Property crimes | 55 % | 1.8× | Status and peer pressure |
| Sexual offenses | 45 % | 1.5× | Gender roles |
United Kingdom: England and Wales
In England and Wales, migrants and their descendants are also overrepresented in crime. Migrants make up 12–13 percent of the population, but they are responsible for 20–25 percent of registered suspects (Offender Management Statistics Quarterly, MoJ). Second-generation young men are the most involved in violence and group crimes. Cultural norms around honor, group loyalty, and confrontational styles are key explanatory factors.
| Group | Share of population (%) | Share of suspects (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Without migration background | 87–88 % | 75–80 % |
| With migration background | 12–13 % | 20–25 % |
| 1st generation | 6 % | 10 % |
| 2nd generation | 6–7 % | 10–15 % |
| Offense type | Migrant share (%) | Relative overrepresentation | Cultural factors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Violence and group violence | 55 % | 1.9× | Peer groups, assertion of power |
| Property crimes | 40 % | 1.6× | Status, peer pressure |
| Sexual offenses | 35 % | 1.5× | Cultural views on gender |
International comparison
| Country | Migrant population share | Migrant share of suspects/crime |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 27 % | 53 % |
| Germany | 26 % | 41 % |
| Sweden | 33 % | 58 % |
| France | 20–25 % | >60 % |
| United Kingdom | 12–13 % | 20–25 % |
These figures show a consistent pattern: migrants are both absolutely and relatively overrepresented in crime, with second-generation young men as the core group. Cultural behavioral norms play a significant role alongside demographic and urban factors.
Historical context
Migration waves in the 1960s–70s in the Netherlands and Germany, and in the 1980s–90s in Sweden, brought large numbers of labor migrants and refugees to urban areas. These groups often settled in disadvantaged neighborhoods, where cultural behavioral norms, group loyalty, and confrontational styles were reinforced. Younger generations inherited these cultural patterns, contributing to overrepresentation in crime, independently of socioeconomic status.
Policy implications
Effective policy must take cultural behaviors into account:
- Education and programs addressing conflict resolution and gender norms.
- Mentorship and role models in migrant neighborhoods.
- Focus on second-generation migrant youth in urban concentrations.
Repressive measures alone are insufficient; integration and cultural guidance are crucial to reduce overrepresentation.
Conclusion
In Western democracies, migrants are clearly overrepresented in crime. Second-generation young men are the core of this overrepresentation, especially in violent and group crimes. Cultural behavioral norms, such as group loyalty, assertion of power, confrontational styles, and gender roles, explain a large part of this pattern. Women are structurally underrepresented everywhere, highlighting the importance of culture and gender. For policy, this means that integration, prevention, and behavioral interventions are inseparable from safety.
Sources (title + author/institution)
Netherlands
- Integratie en samenleven 2024: Criminaliteit , CBS (2024)
- Van verdenking tot vrijheidsstraf , De Jong et al., WODC (2025)
Germany
- Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik 2023 , Bundeskriminalamt (BKA)
Sweden
- Registered offending among persons born in Sweden and abroad 2007–2018 , Brå (2021)
France
- Banlieues, la relégation , Hugues Lagrange
United Kingdom
- Offender Management Statistics Quarterly , Ministry of Justice (MoJ)
